Methodology
How Aumra evaluates and ranks Dubai property
Aumra ranks Dubai projects with a deterministic score out of 100 built from eight weighted signals: developer reputation (16%), asset type and scale (14%), liquidity and sample size (13%), price stability (13%), density and scarcity (12%), Dubai 2040 growth-corridor proximity (12%), prime positioning (10%) and handover horizon (10%), plus a prime asset uplift of up to 10 points where villa product, genuine scarcity, a Tier A developer and a prime ticket line up on the same scheme. The score is recomputed from Dubai Land Department transactions and live listing inventory.
Published by ONKAR REAL ESTATE L.L.C, Dubai trade licence 1585712, RERA ORN 59035. Judgment-based inputs on this page are reviewed and signed off by Pulkit Ganjoo, Chief Executive Officer, RERA broker BRN 93451. Aumra is a licensed brokerage and earns commission on transactions it brokers, including inventory it scores, the rules below are published so any figure can be checked independently.
Property score
The five scoring signals
The five signals fall into two groups that answer different questions. Evidence signals (50% of the score) measure how well-documented a position is. Position-quality signals (50%) are our reading of the position itself. A high score therefore means "well evidenced and well positioned", it does not mean "will appreciate".
Evidence signals, 50% combined
| Signal | Weight | What it measures | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity & sample size | 13% | How many comparable transactions and live listings exist for the project and its area. 30+ comparables score 90; 15 to 29 score 75; 6 to 14 score 60; 3 to 5 score 45. | Observed data |
| Price stability | 13% | Dispersion of price per square foot across the comparable set, as a coefficient of variation. Tighter dispersion scores higher. Capped at 80 on 6 to 14 comparables and at 65 on 3 to 5, because a tight range across a handful of records is not evidence of stability. | Calculated metric |
Position-quality signals, 50% combined
| Signal | Weight | What it measures | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset type & scale | 14% | Villa and mansion stock scores 92, townhouse and duplex stock 85, penthouse stock 84, apartments 62, commercial only 54. Generous floor areas add up to 8 points, from 2,000 sq ft upward. | Observed data |
| Density & scarcity | 12% | Scheme size drives the base: under 40 units scores 94, 40 to 120 scores 87, 120 to 300 scores 76, 300 to 800 scores 64, above 800 scores 52. Communities that cannot densify, such as Emirates Hills, Palm Jumeirah, Al Barari and The Oasis, add 8 points. | Observed data |
| Prime positioning | 10% | Entry ticket band: AED 20M and above scores 95, AED 10M to 20M scores 90, AED 5M to 10M scores 83, AED 3M to 5M scores 75, AED 1.5M to 3M scores 65, below that 56. Branded residences add 6 points. | Calculated metric |
| Growth corridor | 12% | Whether the area sits inside a Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan growth corridor. Inside scores 88, outside scores 60. | Observed data |
| Developer reputation | 16% | The developer's published tier (table below). Tier A scores 94, B 78, C 60, D 42. A developer we have not yet reviewed scores 55, neither rewarded nor penalised. | Human judgment, reviewed |
| Handover horizon | 10% | Ready or handed-over stock scores 82; handover within 2 years scores 78; 2 to 4 years scores 68; 4+ years scores 55; no published handover date scores 60. Longer horizons carry more execution risk, not more upside. | Calculated metric |
| Prime asset uplift | Up to +10 points | Applied after the weighted average, because scarcity compounds rather than averages. Villa or mansion product adds 3 (ground-level houses 2), a low-density community 2, a scheme of 120 units or fewer 2, a Tier A developer 3, an entry ticket at AED 5M or above 2, and a branded residence 1. The total is capped at 10 and the final score at 99. | Calculated metric |
Interaction rule. Price stability is only meaningful on a reasonable sample, so it is capped by sample size: a maximum of 65 on 3–5 comparables and 80 on 6–14. Without that cap a project with three near-identical records would score as the most stable asset in Dubai.
Composite tiers
- Prime80 – 100
- Strong65 – 79
- Fair50 – 64
- No tier shownBelow 50
Benchmark confidence
- High confidence20 or more comparable records
- Medium confidence8 to 19 comparable records
- Low confidence3 to 7 comparable records
- No score publishedFewer than 3 comparable records
What the score is not. It is not a price forecast, a guarantee of return, or a rental projection, and it has not been back-tested against realised returns, we do not claim a correlation we have not measured. It measures how well-evidenced and how liquid a position is.
Developer reputation
How developers are tiered, and who signs it off
Developer reputation is the one signal in the score that is human judgment rather than arithmetic, so we publish both the criteria and the resulting table. Tiers are assigned on delivered track record, observed handover slippage on completed projects, regulatory and escrow record, and the depth of the secondary market in the developer's completed stock. Where we do not have a verified record, the developer is placed in Tier C and treated as neutral rather than being guessed either way.
| Tier | Signal score | Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| Tier A | 88 | Long delivered track record in Dubai, no pattern of material handover slippage in our review, and a deep secondary market in completed stock. |
| Tier B | 74 | Delivered stock and a sound record, but a shorter history or a thinner resale market than Tier A. |
| Tier C | 60 | Insufficient verified delivery record to place either way, treated as neutral, not penalised. |
| Tier D | 42 | Documented delivery delays, handover disputes or resale difficulty. Penalised on this signal. |
The live tier table applied by the scoring job:
Accountable reviewer
Tier assignments are reviewed and signed off by Pulkit Ganjoo, Chief Executive Officer, RERA broker BRN 93451. Published by ONKAR REAL ESTATE L.L.C, Dubai trade licence 1585712, RERA ORN 59035. Aumra earns commission on transactions it brokers, including units from developers listed above; the tier table is not a paid placement and no developer pays for a tier. If you believe a tier is wrong, write to us with the evidence and we will publish a correction.
Off-market
How discounts are calculated
Market discount, the headline number, is (community comparable value − asking price) ÷ community comparable value. The comparable value is the unit's saleable area multiplied by the median registered price per square foot for its community over the last 24 months, from Dubai Land Department records, with a minimum of eight registered comparables. Where DLD coverage is too thin, the median asking rate across at least fifteen live listings in the same area is used instead, and the figure is labelled as asking-based.
Change versus owner entry price is a different measurement: (the price the current owner originally paid − the current asking price) ÷ the original price. It describes the seller's position, not the market, an owner who bought at the peak can show a large change while still asking above today's comparable. We publish it alongside the market discount and never in place of it.
Units asking at or above the comparable stay in the population with a zero or negative discount, so the median is never inflated by dropping them.
Duplicate postings of the same physical unit, matched on project, bedrooms, saleable area and price, are collapsed to one record before any aggregate is computed. See the live output on the Dubai Off-Market Discount Index.
Datasets
Exclusion rules
- Off-market discount index: communities with fewer than 5 live units are excluded.
- Price per square foot: computed per unit (asking price ÷ saleable area) then aggregated, so large units cannot distort the median. Implied rates below AED 200 or above AED 20,000 per sqft are treated as data errors and dropped. Areas with fewer than 15 live units are excluded.
- Rental yields: we publish the rent required to clear 6% and 7% gross rather than a per-area net yield, because Dubai service charges vary widely between towers and a single area-level net yield would mislead.
- Asking versus registered: all published figures are asking prices unless explicitly labelled as registered transactions. Closed prices typically sit below the asking median on negotiable stock.
Provenance
Where the data comes from
- Dubai Land Department transaction history.
- Developer and brokerage inventory feeds.
- Direct seller submissions, including unstructured messages and brochures.
- Our own advisory pipeline and completed transactions.
Unstructured seller messages and brochures are parsed into structured fields by language models. Every extracted record retains its raw source text, so any published figure can be traced back and audited. Outlier prices and impossible unit sizes are rejected at ingestion, and aggregates are suppressed below the minimum sample sizes above. Inventory updates continuously; aggregates recompute daily.
Transparency
Observed, calculated, and judged
Observed data
Taken directly from a transaction record or a live listing.
Calculated metric
Derived arithmetically from observed data, price per sqft, discount, dispersion.
Human judgment
Developer tiering, assigned against published criteria and signed off by a named RERA-licensed reviewer.
We publish no forecasts.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- How does Aumra rank properties?
- With a deterministic score out of 100 combining developer reputation (16%), asset type and scale (14%), liquidity and sample size (13%), price stability (13%), density and scarcity (12%), Dubai 2040 growth-corridor proximity (12%), prime positioning (10%) and handover horizon (10%). A prime asset uplift of up to 10 points is then applied where villa product, a low-density community, a Tier A developer and a prime price band combine. Scores of 80 and above are tiered Prime, 65 to 79 Strong, and 50 to 64 Fair.
- How is an off-market discount calculated?
- Aumra publishes two separate numbers. Market discount = (community comparable value − asking price) ÷ community comparable value, where the comparable value is the unit's saleable area multiplied by the median registered price per square foot for its community over the last 24 months. Change versus owner entry price = (price the current owner originally paid − asking price) ÷ the original price; that one measures the seller's position, not the market.
- Who reviews Aumra's developer tiers?
- Developer tiers are assigned against published criteria and signed off by Pulkit Ganjoo, Chief Executive Officer of ONKAR REAL ESTATE L.L.C (RERA broker BRN 93451, ORN 59035, Dubai trade licence 1585712). Every tier row carries the reviewer name and review date.
- Does the Aumra score predict returns?
- No. The score has not been back-tested against realised returns and is not a return forecast. It measures how well-evidenced and how liquid a position is. Aumra publishes no capital-appreciation forecasts, guaranteed returns or guaranteed rental income.
- What data does Aumra use?
- Dubai Land Department transaction history, developer and brokerage inventory feeds, direct seller submissions, and Aumra's own advisory pipeline. Every extracted record keeps its raw source text for audit.
- How often is the data updated?
- Inventory updates continuously and all published aggregates recompute daily.
See the method applied to live inventory
Every scored project and every off-market unit on Aumra is produced by exactly the rules on this page.